It’s almost hard to believe that Americans all watched the same State of the Union speech on February 5th.
The State of the Union was ‘racist’ to Bernie Sanders and ‘visionary’ to Sarah Huckabee Sanders. Van Jones called it ’pyschotically incoherent’ to MSNBC, while Newt Gingrich was penning a Fox News Op-Ed lauding it as ’so effective and powerful that it changes the trajectory of history.’
In truth, the 2019 State of the Union barely altered the oratorial recipe outlined by President Trump’s 2018 State of the Union speechwriters. The speech began with Trump pounding the chest of the American economy. He cited rising wages, highest employment numbers in history, booming job creation and leadership in energy exports as indicators of success--though several numbers indicated the need to hire an additional White House fact-checker. Then, he tackled the 2019 agenda, leapfrogging between Republican hot topics and capping each with a one-liner legislative proposal.
In fact, for a man who tends to embrace his role as a political anomaly, President Trump’s State of the Union style fits neatly into historic molds.
The State of the Union’s ritualism falls squarely within Trump’s comfort zone—unilateral exaltation of American greatness, enhanced by gusto for story-telling. With weeks of preparation and a teleprompter safety blankets, Trump’s speechwriters could craft and control the Trump’s penchant for controversial improv.
An edited Trump is comparatively hard to read. The formulaic similarities with past speeches have practically made analyzation of the 2019 a game of ‘spot the difference.’
There is a difference, however— encapsulated by Democratic Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi’s seat to Trump’s right. This is the first time Trump is addressing a divided Congress—as well as the most diverse House of Representatives in American History. Furthermore, as 2020 elections gain early momentum, Trump’s speeches inevitably double as insights into his campaign strategy.
Prior years—uniting a Republican House, a Republican Senate and an American public with an ectorally derived conservative slant—were more simple., This year, Trump navigated a newly polarized yet politically salient audience.
In practice, this simultaneous need to appeal to irreconcilable audiences translated to an identity crisis of tone throughout sections of the speech. He needs his base energized, but he needs to reunite a Republican Party splintered by shutdown solutions. He needs to attract new voters for 2020 and wrangle cooperation from a Democratic house.
Here are five sides of Trump that came out in the 2019 State of the Union.
Before Trump’s address, administration officials leaked hints of the speech’s vanilla flavor with a refrained theme: ‘unity.’
In opening paragraphs, bipartisanship stole the show. Trump’s rhetoric abounded with uncharacteristic cooperative appeals. Trump prefaced his 2019 agenda as neither Republican nor Democratic—rather, ‘American.’
“Victory is not winning for our party. Victory is not winning for our country,” he added.
He referenced precedents of bipartisan success from the 2018, such as opioid crisis aid, Veterans Affairs oversight and criminal justice reform. Paid family leave and health care for patients with pre-existing conditions—two Democratic platforms—made it onto Trump’s proposed 2019 budget for the first time.
He also praised the election of 117 women in the House of Representatives—to which women on both sides of the aisle stood up and applauded. Some Democrats labeled as ironic, given that many of those women ran in vocal opposition to his presidency. The camera panned across a section of white-clad Congresswomen, in a coordinated visual tribute to U.S. 20th century suffragists.
Despite these outreaches, Democrats left the Capitol unimpressed and unconvinced—partly due to the polarized political atmosphere left by the shutdown. Congressional parties are fresh off of a showdown to end the longest partial government shutdown in history—and gearing up for a rematch in coming weeks.
2020 candidate Cory Booker tweeted: “It takes more than a nod to unity at the top of a speech to bring our country together. Our president has spent the last 2 years trying to drive us apart. Actions speak louder than words.”
The White House also aimed highly divisive and insulting rhetoric at Democrats both before and after the State of the Union, diluting the credibility of Trump’s gestures. For example, at a lunch with television anchors before the State of the Union, Trump delivered searing criticism of major players in the Democratic Party. He called former Vice President Joe Biden “dumb,” and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) a “nasty son of a bitch.”
After the speech, Katrina Pierson, senior advisor to Trump’s reelection campaign took shots at the Congresswomen in white.
“The only thing that the Democrats uniform was missing tonight is the matching hood,” tweeted Katrina Pierson, senior advisor to Trump’s reelection campaign.
Likely, the American public was always going to scrutinize the 2019 State of the Union as a re-election plug for President Trump. While no ‘build a wall’ chants rang through the Capitol, the President curated rhetoric to simultaneously energize his base and alienate Democrats.
It began with bragging—Late Night TV’s favorite trait in President Trump. Yet, Trump succeeded in pointing to strong indicators of economic growth, despite occasionally inflated statistics. He touted success in passing several of his 2018 proposals, such as improving vocational training through the Carl D. Perkins Career and Technical Education Act, ending the defense sequester military funding caps and lowering the price of prescription drugs by the highest margin in 46 years.
Then came the fear-mongering, with immigration at center stage. Trump approached the Southern border wall as a “moral issue,” characterizing the border crisis through statistics of human trafficking, sexual assault of female immigrants and criminal behavior by illegal aliens targeting American citizens. The recipe was a bold reincarnation of his 2018 approach to immigration rhetoric. He invited Latino-American ICE agent C.J. Martinez as his 2018 guest and Latino-American ICE agent Elvin Hernandez as his 2019 guest. Both years, viewers were introduced to relatives of Americans who had had been murdered by MS-13: Debra Bissell, Heather Armstrong and Madison Armstrong in 2019 and Evelyn Rodriguez, Freddy Cuevas, Elizabeth Alvarado and Robert Mickens in 2018.
Abortion was also discussed in its extremities. Trump chose two controversial Democratic policies to highlight: a late-term abortion bill in New York and a statement by Virginia Governor Ralph Northam on his willingness to “execute a baby after birth” in cases of severe deformation or nonviable pregnancy. By elevating these far-left policies into the mainstream, Trump may succeed in scoring points with Independent and Left-Center voters. After all, 2018 Gallup polls show that only 13 percent of Americans approve of third trimester abortion.
Near the end of the speech, Trump conspicuous segway to partisan warnings within a discussion of military objectives—connecting the Maduro regime in Venezuela to the rise of socialism in the United States.
“Here, in the United States, we are alarmed by new calls to adopt socialism in our country,” Trump said. “America was founded on liberty and independence --- not government coercion, domination, and control. We are born free, and we will stay free. Tonight, we renew our resolve that America will never be a socialist country.”
Both liberal and conservative analysts have acknowledged the statement as a jab at pronounced Democrats like Sen. Bernie Sanders and freshman Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
The quip may hint at a theme for Republican negative messaging in the 2020 campaign: espousing the Democratic Party with socialism.
“The road to nomination of Democratic Party runs through Venezuela,” said Senator Lindsey Graham on Fox News after the speech.
Trump’s guests— from recovering opioid user Ashley Evans to 9-year-old cancer survivor Grace Eline— added human faces to punctuate major points of his speech.
The Democrats’ guests had the opposite effect. Their unspoken narratives highlighted the issues omitted by Trump’s address.
Six transgender military members sat in the audience as guests of Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), Rep. Donald McEachin (D-VA), Rep. Chris Pappas (D-NH), Rep. Jackie Speier (D-CA) and Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D- CA). Their presence called attention to the President’s efforts to ban transgender people from serving in the military.
Senator and 2020 candidate Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) brought Sajid Shahriar, a federal employee who organized against lack of pay during the 35-day government shutdown. Senator Kamala Harris, also a 2020 candidate, brought Trisha Pesiri-Dybvik, a furloughed federal worker who also lost her home in the California 2017 wildfires.
Democrats also pointed to climate change, gun violence, voter suppression and family separation at the border as issues conspicuously absent from Trump’s speech.
Criminal investigations left deep scars on Trump’s 2018— and they show no signs of slowing down under a Democrat-controlled House.
Trump had never mentioned investigations during the State of the Union before. This time, he left the Capitol with three sentences.
“An economic miracle is taking place in the United States -- and the only thing that can stop it are foolish wars, politics, or ridiculous partisan investigations,” President Trump said. “If there is going to be peace and legislation, there cannot be war and investigation. It just doesn't work that way! We must be united at home to defeat our adversaries abroad.”
Liberal analysts have long likened Trump’s handling of looming congressional investigations to Nixon’s handling of Watergate. Nixon called for an end to investigations in his 1974 state of the union— the same year he resigned from the Oval Office.
The government shutdown has also delayed the release of President Trump’s 2020 Budget, which normally would accompany the State of the Union. Office of Management and Budget Analysts were deemed inessential during the 35-day shutdown, and so budget preparation is running behind the clock.
If Trump’s budgets follow pattern, Americans can expect increases for military spending and veteran support, with severe cuts on welfare and regulatory agencies. The 2019 State of the Union projects a similarly lackadaisical approach to balancing a growing deficit— advocating expensive proposals ranging from defense spending to paid family leave.
Trump’s previous budget proposal for FY 2019 allowed the deficit to increase from 3.5 percent GDP to 4.8 percent GDP— totaling over 985 billion dollars. Those numbers total the largest proportional deficit recorded in a non-recession year. In FY 2018, Trump’s federal budget created a $833 billion budget deficit.p>
Still, the FY 2019 budget showed no signs of slowing down spending. The Congressional Budget Office Projects that deficits will total between 4.1 percent and 4.7 percent of GDP for the upcoming decade, exceeding $1 trillion each year beginning in 2022.
The FY 2020 budget may bring new hope— perhaps, a return to Trump’s campaign promises to reduce the deficit. The Washington Post reported in November that Trump had developed a newfound concern for the growing amount of federal debt absorbed by the governments. This priority would mark a major departure from previous administration approaches— for example, when Bob Woodward’s book “Fear: Trump in the White House” detailed Trump suggesting to an economic advisor that the US could simply print more money to cover the deficit.
The FY 2020 Budget is expected to be released on March 12, 2019.
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